Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance - Egypt’s Potential Dark Age

August 7, 2020 Vedant Pansari

Transitioning dynamics between countries with transitioning water supply

As Ethiopia inches closer to the completion of the Grand Renaissance water dam, the tension between Ethiopia and Egypt continues to grow. As water and food sources are threatened, the pandemic may not be the biggest problem for millions of Africans.

An interesting way to explain this problem would be through game theory. Game theory is the strategic interaction between self-interested decision makers. The game of ‘Chicken’ is a basic game that can help us understand a part of game theory. Let us consider two racers A and B, both drive their cars straight toward each other at maximum speed. At the very last second they can either decide to swerve or continue going straight. If one swerves while the other keeps straight, then the person who swerves is called a “chicken”. If both racers swerve, then it’s a compromised outcome with no fame or shame. If, however, both continue to go straight, it is the worst outcome as the cars collide and both racers are injured.

As seen in the table above, the best response by Racer A if Racer B goes straight is to swerve (green box). Similarly, the best response by Racer B if Racer A goes straight is to swerve (green box). However, the most neutral situation would be for both racers to swerve (blue box).

With Ethiopia controlling a significant portion of the Nile River’s water flow by constructing the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt’s concerns rise as their livelihoods are threatened and the game of ‘Chicken’ has begun. Ethiopia started building GERD in 2011 and has spent almost $4,000,000,000 on the project. Once completed, the dam will have an overall capacity of 75 billion cubic meters and will be the second largest dam by volume in Africa, after Egypt’s Aswan High Dam.According to Dr. Kevin Wheeler, the reservoir behind the dam has already started to fill this year since the start of the monsoon season and should reach the lowest point of the dam wall (Zane, 2020). Ethiopia plans to fill the upstream GERD in the span of 5 years or less, significantly reducing Egypt’s fresh water supply by 20 billion cubic meters annually, or approximately 36% of its water share (Haddad, 2020). So, while Ethiopia (Racer A) drives forward on the path of development, Egypt’s (Racer B) water supply is increasingly threatened, and tensions between the two countries are escalating.

Fear, interest, and honor; all three are at the forefront of this high-stakes situation for both Egypt and Ethiopia (Sjursen, 2020). In 1959, an accord was signed by Egypt and Sudan to split the distribution of the Nile water in the ratio of 66% and 22% respectively. Ethiopia was never consulted. In 1999, an 11-country intergovernmental partnership aimed to develop cooperation, share socioeconomic benefits, and promote regional peace and security was formed, including Ethiopia. It was called the “Nile Basin.” Despite the very sensitive nature of the partnership, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, refuses to acknowledge the colonial-era Nile Water Agreement and wants the dam to be filled in five years in Ethiopia’s best interest (Haddad, 2020).

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have the capability to produce 6450 MW worth of electricity, the largest hydroelectric producer in Africa. This will exponentially increase the development capabilities for Ethiopia, as their energy demands will be fulfilled. On the contrary, Egypt’s hydroelectricity production will decrease at the Aswan High Dam because of reduced water flow. Ethiopia intends to sell excess electricity to neighbouring countries like Sudan. Approximately, the sale of 2000 MW will generate US $580 million in revenue. This will increase Ethiopia’s current GDP of US $96.11 Billion by a striking 0.6%. As the dam will control the Nile’s flow, damage by floods will significantly decrease but the reduction in silt will decrease the fertility of Egypt’s lands. Ethiopia will be able to improve its irrigation and agricultural output. On the other hand, Egypt stands to lose over 50% (20234 sq. kilometers) of its agricultural land if the dam is filled in 5 years or less because of a 36% reduction in water supply (Haddad, 2020).

So why is the game of chicken pertinent?

While diplomatic talks continue between Egypt and Ethiopia over the technical and legal functioning and filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, an amicable solution is yet to be established. Ethiopia can be understood as Racer A and Egypt as Racer B, who are heading toward each other on a path of collision. Egypt, which is completely dependent on the Nile’s water, wants to secure a legally binding deal with Ethiopia that will ensure a minimum flow of water and guarantee continued sustenance for Egyptians. On the other hand, Ethiopia fears a legally binding agreement, as this will restrict their future development projects (Al Jazeera, 2020). According to a risk management study done by Dr. El-Nashar and Dr. Elyamany, the probability of a dispute leading to a military conflict is very high. If, however, the two countries wage war, in the game of chicken it would mean the two racers colliding, which is the worst possible outcome with the least benefit for both countries. If Egypt begins to wage war (‘Go Straight’) it would be better for Ethiopia to take a legally binding deal and still operate the dam (‘Swerve’). If Ethiopia begins to fill the dam in the quick rate of 3 years or less (‘Go Straight’), it would be better for Egypt to concentrate on alternate tactics (‘Swerve’) such as growing low water consuming crops and improving the surface irrigation systems to exponentially reduce their water losses and therefore the impact of GERD (El-Nashar, Elyamany, 2020).

Large populations, human development and climate change have increased the strains on water resources. It is indeed troubling times for humanity when uncertain scenarios due to water shortage can potentially lead to war.

Citations and sources for further reading:

Al Jazeera. “Nile Dam: Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan Talks End with No Deal.” Egypt News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 14 July 2020, www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/dam-talks-egypt-ethiopia-sudan-deal-200714061336713.html).

El-Nashar, Walaa Y., and Ahmed H. Elyamany. “Managing Risks of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Egypt.” Ain Shams Engineering Journal, Elsevier, 12 July 2017, www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090447917300837.

“Ethiopia GDP Share of Agriculture - Data, Chart.” TheGlobalEconomy.com, www.theglobaleconomy.com/Ethiopia/share_of_agriculture/.

Goldschmidt, Arthur Eduard, and Charles Gordon Smith. “Trade.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 17 Mar. 2020, www.britannica.com/place/Egypt/Trade.

“Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project, Benishangul-Gumuz.” Water Technology, www.water-technology.net/projects/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-africa/.

Haddad, Mohammed. “Could Mega-Dams Kill the Mighty River Nile? (an Interactive Report).” Al Jazeera Interactives, Al Jazeera, 23 Jan. 2020, interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2020/saving-the-nile/index.html.

Patel, Sonal “Rains Complicate Ethiopian Hydro Dam Dispute.” POWER Magazine, 24 July 2020, www.powermag.com/rains-complicate-ethiopian-hydro-dam-dispute/.

Sjursen, Danny 11 Jul, et al. “US Allies Egypt and Ethiopia Squabble Over Nile Ignoring Bigger Threats.” NewsClick, 11 July 2020, www.newsclick.in/Grand-Ethiopian-Renaissance-Dam-Nile-River-Egypt-Ethiopia-Water-War-US-Imperialism.

Sterling, Mary Jane, and About the Book Author Mary Jane Sterling is the author of Algebra I For Dummies. “Game Theory: The Game of Chicken.” Dummies, www.dummies.com/education/math/game-theory-game-chicken/.

Zane, Damian. “Ethiopia's River Nile Dam: How It Will Be Filled.” BBC News, BBC, 16 July 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948.